An AI-powered personal coach for prediction markets, providing actionable market edge analysis, performance diagnostics, and strategic post-mortem insights.

Glossary

Precise, A-to-Z definitions for the prediction-market and Odds Coach terms used throughout the app — from edge and implied probability to Auto-Pilot and the Coach Score.

A

AI probability: Odds Coach's own model-estimated probability of an outcome, produced by structured reasoning over available information. It exists to be compared against the market probability, not read alone — the size and direction of the disagreement between the two is what edge measures.
Auto top-up: An optional setting that automatically purchases a chosen credit package once a user's balance falls below a threshold they set, so research is not interrupted mid-session. It can be disabled at any time and never runs unless explicitly enabled first.
Auto-Pilot: Odds Coach's advisory action-plan subscription feature. It applies a user's own risk rules (bankroll, stake caps, minimum edge, minimum confidence, categories, cadence) to already-analysed markets and returns a ranked, pre-sized shortlist of suggestions. It never places, sizes for execution, or manages a trade itself — every trade is opened and placed by the user on Polymarket.

B

Bankroll: The total amount of money a user has deliberately set aside for trading on prediction markets and can genuinely afford to lose. All position-sizing guidance in Odds Coach — recommended stake, maximum stake percentage — is expressed as a fraction of this number, never as an absolute dollar figure chosen for you.
Bid / Ask (bid-ask spread): In an order-book market, the bid is the highest price a buyer is currently offering and the ask is the lowest price a seller will accept. The gap between them — the spread — is a rough measure of liquidity: a narrow spread signals an actively traded market, a wide one signals thin trading where a large order can move the price.
Binary market: A prediction market with exactly two possible outcomes, conventionally labelled Yes and No, where each contract resolves to either $1 or $0. Because the two prices must sum to roughly $1 before fees, a Yes price of 62¢ implies a No price near 38¢.

C

Coach Report: The long-term feedback screen that aggregates a user's closed positions into trends and lessons over time, distinct from any single trade's outcome. It is the home of the Coach Score and of pattern-level insights across categories and recurring risk factors.
Coach Score: A single number, shown on the Coach Report, that measures the quality of a user's decision-making process rather than raw profit or loss. Because a well-reasoned bet can still lose to variance, the score deliberately rewards sound reasoning and discipline so it can be tracked independently of any one result.
Confidence level: A qualitative rating — Low, Medium, Medium-High, or High — attached to every AI analysis, separate from the edge itself. It reflects how many independent factors support the analysis and how sensitive the conclusion is to any single assumption being wrong; a large edge at Low confidence is a much weaker basis for a decision than a small edge at High confidence.
Credit: Odds Coach's internal unit of account for premium, AI-powered research; one standard search costs 1 credit. Credits have no cash value outside the product, are non-transferable, and are drawn from a complete, append-only ledger visible on the Credits screen.

E

Edge: The gap between a probability estimate (typically the AI probability) and the market probability for the same outcome, expressed in percentage points. A positive edge suggests the market may be mispriced in that direction, but the existence of a gap is a reason to investigate further, not by itself a reason to trade.

F

Followed market: A market a user has explicitly chosen to track via the Follow control, independent of whether they hold a position in it. Following a market is how Odds Coach knows to alert the user later if the analysis or price on that specific market changes materially.
Fractional Kelly: The practice of staking a chosen fraction (commonly a quarter to a half) of what the full Kelly criterion would recommend, rather than the full amount. It trades away some theoretical long-run growth for much smaller drawdowns when a probability estimate turns out to be wrong — which it often is, since Kelly assumes the estimate is exact.

H

Help Wizard: The floating assistant available on every screen. For a signed-in user it is backed by AI and answers from the app's published Help content; if it cannot answer confidently, or for a signed-out visitor, it falls back to a keyword search over the same content and, failing that, offers to forward the question to an administrator.

I

Implied probability: The probability a market price suggests an outcome will occur, derived directly from the price itself — a 62¢ Yes contract implies roughly 62%. It is called "implied" because it is inferred from trading activity rather than measured directly, and it reflects what participants collectively believe right now, which can be wrong.

K

Kelly criterion: A formula, adapted from information theory, that computes the stake size which maximises a bankroll's long-run growth rate given a probability estimate and the price offered. Its output is only as reliable as the probability fed into it, which is why Odds Coach's suggested stake uses a conservative fraction of it rather than the raw Kelly figure.

L

Liquidity: A measure of how easily a position can be entered or exited at the current price without moving that price significantly. Markets with high trading volume and tight bid-ask spreads are liquid; markets with little activity are thin, and a sizeable order in a thin market can move the price sharply.

M

Market probability: The probability implied by a market's current price at this moment — the crowd's aggregated view. Odds Coach places this directly beside its own AI probability for comparison; the market probability is not treated as automatically correct, only as the reference point edge is measured against.

O

Open position / Closed position: An open position is a tracked bet still awaiting resolution; a closed position is one that has settled — won or lost — and been marked complete. Closing a position is what triggers its post-mortem and folds its outcome into the Coach Report.

P

Position: A single tracked bet: a market, a side (Yes or No), a stake, and the entry price at the time it was taken. A Position also stores the market and AI probabilities at entry, so a later post-mortem can compare what was believed then against what is known now.
Post-mortem: A structured review generated after a position closes. It restates the original thesis, compares it against the actual outcome, and separates the quality of the decision-making process from the role of chance — so a lucky win is not mistaken for skill, and an unlucky loss is not mistaken for a bad decision.
Prediction market: A market where participants trade contracts whose payout depends on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a game, a scientific milestone. Prices move as new information arrives and participants revise their expectations, which is what allows a price to be read as an implied probability.

R

Recommended stake: A position size, expressed as a percentage of bankroll, that Odds Coach's analysis suggests for a given market once an edge is identified. It is calculated with a conservative, fractional-Kelly approach and is always a discipline signal for the user to adjust — never an instruction that is executed automatically.
Resolution: The moment a prediction market's true outcome becomes known and every contract pays out $1 or $0 accordingly (for a binary market). A market's expected resolution date is one factor Odds Coach's risk notes consider, since time-to-resolution affects how much new information can still arrive.
Risk disclaimer: The legal statement every user must read and explicitly accept — separately for general use and again before any purchase — acknowledging that trading prediction markets carries real financial risk, that Odds Coach does not guarantee outcomes, and that every decision remains the user's own responsibility.
Risk notes: The specific, market-by-market factors listed in an analysis that could invalidate its reasoning: an upcoming event the price hasn't absorbed yet, thin liquidity, reliance on a single data source, or a scenario the model may be underweighting. Reading the risk notes is usually more informative than reading the headline probability alone.

S

Self-custody wallet: A crypto wallet whose private keys are held only by you, not by a company. Trading on Polymarket requires one, funded with USDC. Odds Coach only ever uses your public wallet address (the part safe to share) and never asks for the private key or seed phrase that controls the funds.
Signal: In Auto-Pilot, one ranked, pre-sized suggestion produced by a scan: a specific market, side, and stake that fits a user's configured risk rules at that moment. A signal is marked suggested, taken (the user says they placed it themselves), or dismissed, and it never triggers a trade by itself.
Slippage: The difference between the price a trader expects to pay and the price actually filled, caused by moving through the order book in a market with limited depth. It matters most in thin, low-liquidity markets, which is one reason Odds Coach's risk notes flag illiquid opportunities.
Subscription tier: A recurring monthly plan (Pro or Auto-Pilot) that grants a fixed batch of credits every billing cycle at a lower effective price than one-time packages. A subscription can be cancelled at any time without losing already-earned credits — cancelling only stops future renewal, it never claws back a balance.

U

USDC: A stablecoin whose value is pegged to the US dollar, used as the trading currency on Polymarket. One USDC is intended to always be worth about one dollar, so market prices and stakes can be read directly in dollar terms. Odds Coach does not hold, transfer, or require USDC — it is only needed on Polymarket itself.

V

Variance: The natural spread of outcomes around what "should" happen on average given a probability estimate. Over a small number of bets, variance dominates and results say little about decision quality; over many bets, a genuine edge gradually shows through. Judging a single win or loss as proof of skill or failure is the most common mistake variance causes.
Volume: The total dollar amount traded in a market over a given period, shown alongside its probability figures. High volume is one input into liquidity and a rough signal that a price has been tested by many independent participants rather than a handful of thin trades.

W

Welcome balance: The small number of credits automatically granted to every new account so a user can try AI-powered research before making any purchase, without needing a verified email or completing checkout first.